The direct human impact is estimated at 33,500 deaths, and 3.1 million people homeless. There will be a potential 18,000 casualties from fire-related incidents, and 113,600 may be left injured. Residential buildings will be most at risk, with at least 25.6 percent or 339,800 damaged and another half of this figure heavily damaged. Without sugarcoating it or obscuring it in more technical terms, the report includes some terribly alarming figures. It outlines which areas are most vulnerable, the extent of worst-case-scenario damage, and recommended action plans to mitigate these. This comprehensive study covers earthquake damage scenarios and estimation results. To their credit, PHIVOLCS has teamed up with the MMDA and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to put together the 2004 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS). If you are still in the dark about the imminent West Valley Fault earthquake, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) paints quite the picture. That is 361 years ago, less than a generation short of its rough 400-year cycle. With videos of buildings swaying like bamboo and rooftop pools pouring out of buildings like waterfalls waterfalling that circulate our social media feeds and Viber groups, it is not difficult to imagine the worst.Īs if we need more reminding, the last big quake that the West Valley Fault produced was in 1658. What could have happened if Monday’s magnitude 6.1 earthquake was one notch higher on the Richter Scale? It shines the much-needed spotlight on building safety, in the event our worst apocalyptic nightmares of the Big One come to life. Manila (CNN Philippines Life) - In the wake of the recent Metro Manila earthquake, which produced the leaning tower of Emilio Aguinaldo College, the entire Greater Manila, Area is rattled with questions: What will happen when the Big One strikes? Can our buildings withstand it? Are we doing enough to prepare for it? Editor's note: The opinions expressed in this article are the author's.

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